AGOA and South Africa

A number of American clients have given voice to their concerns about the frantic attempts by Minister of Trade and Industry, Rob Davies, to convince the American Congressmen and –women that South Africa deserves to be included in the benefits offered by AGOA.  They have pointed out a number of matters that the South Africans have been at pains not to bring to the attention of the American public during the negotiations.  Some of the more important of these matters are addressed below.

South Africa is, at present, the dominant economy in Africa.  The objective of AGOA is to ensure that underdeveloped African countries are given an opportunity to grow by having duty-free access to the American market.  If South Africa is granted that access, it will go a long way to ensure that the country continues to dominate the African economic scene.  South African companies are known to adopt predatory practices in their competition with weaker competitors, both within the country and outside.  That is the reason why large companies predominate in South Africa.  It is also the reason why those countries are moving into Africa.  There is no altruism in South African business, and any small, developing African industrialist would have good reason to fear the entry of one of those large companies into its market.  That fear is multiplied by the close relationships the African top businessmen have with the politicians in other African countries, a relationship that is often greased with money and favours that are beyond the capacity of the smaller business neighbours.  Permitting South Africa to benefit under a renewed AGOA would certainly serve to advance the interests of South African businessmen and top politicians at the expense of the developing businesses in other African countries.

South Africa can no longer be counted on as a friend of the West, particularly of the United States and Britain.  This has been clear for several years, effectively since the accession to power of Thabo Mbeki, who is known to have strong leanings towards Russia, Cuba and China, and it has been intensified under Jacob Zuma.  The leaning is clearly demonstrated by the grants made to Cuba, by the sending of students who cannot gain admission to South African universities to institutions of higher learning in Cuba, Russia and China, rather than to those vastly superior universities in the United States, by the membership of South Africa in the Brics association, in which the two most significant players are Russia and China, by the fact that the African National Congress desired to send Julius Malema, then President of the ANC Youth League, to China for instruction in ‘anger management (or, more likely, indoctrination), by the large number of repatriation the bodies of deceased ANC and South African Communist Party members who died in Russia during the ‘struggle years’, by the unveiling today of a monument to the assassinated Leader of the Communist Party, by the fact that an important participant in the Tri Partite Alliance that enables the ANC to hold power is the SA Communist Party, by the fact that the ANC appears to have difficulty separating the SA Communist Party from Cosatu, and by numerous other examples.  That leaning was dramatically underlined by the speech of Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe, during which he castigated Britain, the United States and the West, and declared his strong admiration for China and Russia.  His remarks were accepted with sniggering gratitude by Jacob Zuma, indicating his strong approval.  Mugabe has long been an advisor to Zuma and others in the ANC, relying on their inexperience, their lack of a Western-style education and their reverence for the ‘elders’.  Mugabe called for the formation of an alliance of African and Arabian nations to stand up to the West.  There can be little doubt that Zuma will follow this demand, in the hope that it will detract from his ignominious performance at home.  The strong support that Zuma gives to Russia and Cuba is, no doubt, a hangover from his terrorist days, when the USSR provided arms, training and funding to virtually any group of terrorists, masquerading under the name of ‘freedom fighter’, in order to extend its power into Africa.  The USSR may be gone, but the Russian dream of empire lingers on.

While industrialists need the assistance that AGOA will give them, the question is really whether the United States would wish to support an economy that enables the ANC to pursue its objectives of building Russia and China as effective competitors of the West, and particularly of the United States.  The American businessmen have stated that they would be more than willing to support a new AGOA that will build friends, but they are unwilling to support one that will assist the development of the irrational hatred of the United States that seems to be so much a part of the psyche of the present Government of South Africa.  They ask why they should grant import duty preferences to a Government that has signed an agreement that will give Russia preferential treatment in a bidding process to construct a new generation of nuclear power plants as well as control for twenty years over every element of nuclear technology that the country is involved in (with attention being given to the fact that South Africa has extremely friendly relationships with Iran and North Korea!), without any indication that American companies will have any significant involvement in the bidding process.  They ask why any unconditional assistance should be given to a country that has shown itself clearly not to be a friend.

If South Africa is to be included in the benefits that a new AGOA will provide, the American businessmen ask that clear commitments be given that America will be provided at the very least an equal opportunity, on a level playing field, to participate in the South African economy, without the need to bribe a senior politician or official.  They ask that the industries they establish in South Africa be given the right to conduct their business in a fair and transparent manner, without duress and unfair usage of the powers that State Departments have to coerce them to do the bidding of the ruling Party outside of the legal boundaries that apply to all, and without the prospect of indigenization of their businesses, which is no more than simple legalised coercion.  They ask that they be treated in the same way as the American Government would treat a South African-owned business.

Islamic Terrorist Cells – South Africa

The revelation from al Jazeera of the request by the United States for details of the ownership of a cell phone number in South Africa to which numerous calls were made over at least a three-month period by an Islamic terrorist organisation comes at a time when rumours are rife that the South African Government has permitted, if not encouraged, the use of one or more military bases in the country for the training of Islamic terrorists.  At the same time, the Government welcomed the arrival of Leila Khalid, a convicted terrorist, to the country on a lecture tour to whip up support against Israel, an event that comes at a time when the relations between South Africa and Israel are at an all-time low, and relationships with the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom, all supporters of Israel, are entering a frosty zone, in comparison with the extremely friendly and active improvement of relations with Russia and China.  In addition to that, the word on the streets is that some five hundred thousand Pakistanis now have residence in the country.

Most of these are rumours, but, as the saying goes, there is no smoke without fire.  It is a remarkable turn of events.  The three countries on the South African ‘Don’t Like’ list are the three that have provided by far the largest foreign direct investment into South Africa in the past, and continue to do so at present.  They are also the economic zones that represent by far the largest proportion of foreign trade, in addition to being on the upward slope of the economic curve, whereas China is stagnating and the Russian economy is on the downward curve.  Pakistan and other Muslim countries are hardly a footnote to the South African economy.  One may be pardoned in asking why the country has such a strong drive towards these new friends.

The answer appears to be that Russia and China were always large supporters of the ANC in the days when that organisation was a bunch of terrorists against the country that was trying to stave off Communism.  Becoming respectable Freedom Fighters has not changed the affiliations, as was clearly seen in the offer by the ANC, probably represented by his good friend Jacob Zuma, to Muammar Gadhafi, who provided large funding and other support to the organisation, as well as to other terrorist organisations, at the time of the Lockerbie bombing, and who was invited to stash the cash that he stole from his own country in South Africa, to protect it from the zealous fortune hunters who wanted it to be returned to its rightful owners, the Libyan people. 

The next question that arises is why the West continues to pump money into South Africa, when the facts of its orientation are clear.  If the fact of Apartheid (certainly an abhorrent system of Government, which, remarkably, was substantially similar to many of the new laws in effect in South Africa now, although the new laws do not have the underpinning of religious faith that Apartheid had) was enough to warrant a withdrawal of funding from South Africa in the days of the anti-Communist War / Freedom Struggle, why is the clear support of countries and causes which are patently anti-West not seen in a similar light?  Perhaps the Western economies are waiting for the collapse of the South African economy, so that they can rush in and grab the mining bargains, in the hope that the next Government will be more enlightened, more intelligent, or, perhaps, simply more realistic.  If that is the case, they will have to join a long queue.  A senior executive of an ANC investment company, during a mildly-inebriated discussion on investment strategy in 1997, told the writer that the ANC planned to manage the economy down, so that it could move in and take control of the best assets before it set about the recovery.  It seems that they have been remarkably effective in that, with all the economic and industrial pointers heading firmly south.  However, enlightened observers will have extreme difficulty in believing that the success is the result of intelligent design, rather than seer incompetence and aggressive corruption.  As the economy stands, there is no J-Curve in sight.