Friday, 26 February 2016

Modern Myths

It seems that some political slogans and catch phrases, originally developed to garner votes from the classes affected, have become axioms, statements that are never questioned for truth or validity, and so acted upon without any real understanding of their effect or evaluation of their validity.  Many of them result in substantial structures affecting all citizens and shaping an economy being built upon a base of shifting sand.  The potential for a collapse of disastrous proportions increases as more storeys are added to the structure without any attempt being made to strengthen its foundations.  Some of these are discussed below.

The poorest of the poor.


A large proportion of the funds available to governments are allocated to projects, activities and policies to alleviate the suffering of the poor.  The argument is that the poor are not in that state because of their own fault, and so deserve to be given assistance by the wealthier in an attempt to give them an opportunity to enjoy what the rest of us do.  Funds are allocated to provide medical services, to support their children, to prevent starvation, to provide free housing, free water, free electricity, free or subsidised transport. 

These supports have, almost everywhere, achieved a proliferation of the poor, with exploding numbers of welfare recipients, huge amounts being spent on services, and a rapid growth of the poor population.  Morally, these expenditures appear to be justified, but are they really? 

It is a fact that the numbers of poor increase considerably more quickly than the numbers of well-off.  While Africa has a birth rate in excess of 3,7%, Germany, a generally wealthy country, has a declining population, and the same phenomenon is seen within a country.  The problem that arises here is that the poor are the least economically productive, yet they consume a disproportionate (in economic productivity terms) share of the wealth produced by the society.  The allocation of a portion of the wealth of the society to the poor produces a lower economic return that the same allocation to the more wealthy, and so represents a drag on the economic growth of the society.  While the diversion of a part of the wealth of the country to the poor may be justifiable in different ways, from an economic point of view, the greater the proportion allocated to the poor, the more slowly will the economy of that country grow.  That allocation, in recent times, has increased because the numbers of poor voters have made them an irresistible pool for the governing Party, so that the hand-outs to them per capita have tended to grow, and the numbers have grown at the same time.  In South Africa, the number of recipients of social assistance far exceeds the number of taxpayers, and the ratio of recipients to taxpayers is growing.

If the total of the funds distributed by Government to the poor were to be diverted to investment to grow the economy, the effect would almost certainly be that the economy would grow sufficiently quickly to shrink the numbers of the poor.  Obviously, this could not be done, but the lesson is clear.  The growth of an economy is directly related to the funds invested in it, and the reduction of that investment has a profound effect on the rate of growth, and so on the creation of economic activity that will provide earned income to the participants in the economy.

The other aspect is that social assistance in the form of social grants, such as pensions, support to the indigent, support for children, free housing and services, and similar, provide a magnet to attract those who might have earned a living by subsistence farming, by selling their labour as farm workers, and in similar ways, to the cities, where they do not have the infrastructure or the job opportunities to live a ‘decent life’, requiring that the Government provide free or subsidised housing and services.  Living in this way tends to break down the fabric of the society, resulting in an increase in the number of children born to teenage mothers and to single-parent families, with the result that those children have fewer opportunities to work their own way out of the poverty trap.  An indiscriminate increase of support to the poor, usually undertaken by a Government as a means of attracting their vote, will almost always result in an increase in the number of the poor and so in an increase in the amount of funds, which otherwise would be applied to the development of the economy, being diverted to this economically unproductive use. 

The existence of a number of poor tends to attract an increase in that number and, if not harnessed at an affordable level, it will result in a slowing of economic growth until that growth starts to decline.

The concentration of the Government on the poor is misdirected.  In a team sport, there will be some effort expended on developing a selected group of players with potential, but the greatest pay-off for effort expended will be achieved by improving the quality of the performance by those players who have proven their capability.  So it is in industry and in business.  An undue concentration of effort and expenditure to develop people who have not proven their potential will distract from the development of those activities that are already producing results.  It is much easier to grow a proven business than to develop a start-up business, and the bang for the buck will be much greater in assisting proven businesses and people than in attempting to bring those who do not have any of the skills, experience, capital or developed abilities to the level of those who are already there.  Those with potential will tend to find a way to realise that potential, at least to the extent where the society will find it economically justifiable to expend scarce resources to develop that potential further.  An attempt to force the creation of a potential that does not inherently exist is doomed to failure.  This is even more so in an economy in which there the availability of investable funds is severely limited. 

 

Income redistribution is a moral imperative.


There is no natural law that entitles a person who produces less to take from the high producer.  In Nature, a lion that is an inept hunter starves: he is not subsidised by his more successful colleagues.  An antelope that cannot outrun the predator becomes a meal for the predator:  his colleagues do not attempt to block the efforts of the predator if the result will be that they are eaten.  So it is in less developed societies.  Only when the democratic system comes into play does the need to protect the weaker arise, largely because the people who hold the purse strings realise that, by encouraging the potential voters by transferring some of the wealth of the more successful (and generally fewer in number and so less vote-strong) members of the society to the economically lower performers, those lower performers will vote them into power to continue the redistribution of wealth that they would not otherwise enjoy.  The wealthy generally go along with the redistribution, happy to share their good fortune to a reasonable extent, encouraged by the religious and moral attitudes they absorb as part of their culture.  However, a limit to this largesse is reached when the demands grow to the point that the economic success of the wealthy is threatened by the diversion of too much to the poor, and, often, by the development of a belief by the poor that they are entitled to more as a right based on nothing more than the fact that they are poor.  At that point, the means of transferring the wealth, taxes, becomes oppressive and something to be avoided by any means possible.  At that point, generally, the numbers of the poor are such that the wealthy have effectively lost control of the ability to limit the politicians who use the redistribution to shore up their pool of voters, and so the wealthy are forced to find other means to hold onto what they earn.  This may take the form of tax evasion, of setting up businesses in other jurisdictions in which the rules are more friendly to those earning their wealth, rather than being the recipients of redistribution of the earnings and wealth of others, and, ultimately an emigration of the business to such a jurisdiction, to the loss of the country which believed that the wealthy represent a tied pool of largesse.  This process started in South Africa with the departure of some of the mainstays of the economy, such as Anglo American, SA Breweries and Gencor, as well as the emigration of many skilled professionals, businessmen and industrialists (e.g. Egon Musk of Tesla fame), all of whom could see the writing on the wall.  In many cases, the real reasons for the emigration were not stated, in order to protect what remained behind from the wrath of the politicians, but the result becomes clear over time.  Anglo American is a prime example.  In the past, this company was a driver of industrial development, with a strong interest in more than half of the industrial companies listed to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.  Now it is in the process of downsizing its South African operations to a tiny fraction of what it used to be.  The loss of those companies and people should be a matter of serious concern to the Government, and urgent action should have been taken to stem the outflow, but the imperative to secure re-election by number of votes, rather than by quality of economic performance was too great, and the result is now clear to see – a declining economy, a skills-base wasteland and an economy in crisis.

 

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